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From Dan: Living By the Crystal Ball
posted on October 08, 2012 by Dan
Obama had an opportunity to just about close Romney out in the first debate. He didn't. Romney was fighting to stay alive and give undecided voters, including some leaning away from him but not convinced, reasons for a second look - especially in key swing states. He did. Now, can Romney keep it going and build on that? We'll see. My read (adjusted, up-to-date and, as always, subject to change when and if indications warrant): Still slight advantage to Obama, but his advantage has shrunk from little to slight. My reason for saying "slight advantage Obama" - at the moment: Ohio. Hard to figure a way Romney wins without carrying Ohio, and Obama still has the lead there. You may want to keep in mind that I can be and sometimes have been wrong in these kinds of assessments. I hope I am, at least on my best days, pretty good about reporting on what has happened; when it comes to analyzing what is going to - may - happen, I'm not much (if any) better than the guy at the end of the bar. And I have learned the hard way that he who lives by the crystal ball learns to eat a lot of broken glass. (I've eaten my share.)