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From Dan: Republicans Getting a Bump
posted on September 01, 2012 by Dan
Romney figures to get a "bump" in the polls from the convention (parties and candidates usually do.) The question is how big and how long it lasts. Expect him to get a 3-5 point bump (pretty much in the normal range based on past convention history). I would not be surprised to see it maybe a bit more. Romney clearly helped himself last night with the best speech he's ever given -- one with, in my opinion, strong appeal to women…especially suburban women. Women in the 8-10 key "swing states" (Ohio, Colorado and Virginia among them) may be decisive in this election. Democrats are worried, and they should be. This is a race folks -- tight and volatile with the economy central to it. But Democrats have their convention next week, from which they can realistically hope to get a "bump." Bill Clinton's speech Monday night now takes on even more importance…and, of course, President Obama's closing speech Thursday. Keep in mind that the "bumps" and glow of conventions historically fade fairly quickly. Better to assess contours of the race in late September, early October. Then re-assess again once the presidential debates are completed. At this moment: a slight edge overall to Romney, in my judgement. But don't bet the trailer money on that. Still a long way to go.