
Rather Outspoken
My Life in the News
Riveting and revelatory autobiography.
-Publishers Weekly
Order your copy today
Rather Outspoken News
From Dan: Why Romney Could Win the Election
posted on September 14, 2012 by Dan
New clouds have moved over Romney's moon. The latest polling from Florida, Ohio and Virginia indicate that President Obama has lately opened a bit of a lead among likely voters. Note the "among likely voters." It's important because these are different from overall polls; political pros pay more attention to them because such polls have proven over the years to be more indicative of where a race is (as a snapshot of a specific time) than more general polls.
1. There is still a while to go. The heartwood of the race is still ahead and things can change - especially if something unexpected arises.
2. Even the best of polls can be misleading at this point.
6. Romney's base is motivated and activated, mostly by the core of supporters who absolutely detest Obama. They'll turn out to vote against Obama, even though they may not love Romney. Obama's base may be less motivated, especially if they get over confident. Turnout appears to be more of a question-mark for Obama than Romney. To put it another way: if Obama gets a high turnout he may well win, but turnout could be a problem for him.
At this particular moment, when Romney is in the midst of a difficult streak--some of it brought on by himself, such as with the Libya-Egypt mistake, any objective analysis of the race leads to an 'advantage Obama" conclusion. But that may not last. My personal judgement is still that Romney can win. I am not predicting he will win, but rather just saying I think he still can.

Dan Discusses the Recent IRS and DoJ Scandals with Rachel Maddow — 05/15/13
Dan Discusses Syria on Piers Morgan Tonight — 05/07/13
Dan Discusses Dennis Rodman's Visit to North Korea on Piers Morgan — 03/05/13
Dan Anchors #Waywire's Tweet Tap — 02/18/13
Dan in SUCCESS Magazine — 01/23/13
Dan Does a #Reddit "Ask Me Anything" — 12/27/12
Dan on his friend & fellow Texan Billy Joe Shaver — 12/11/12
Dan Chats with Rachel Maddow About the GOP Moving Forward — 11/15/12
Dan Talks with #Waywire About News in the Digital Age — 11/12/12
Dan Receives the Edward R. Murrow Award for Lifetime Achievement — 10/18/12
Dan Sits Down with Tavis Smiley and Cornel West — 09/26/12
Dan on the media's balancing act with terrorism — 09/11/12
Dan Rather: 'Quote approval' a media sellout — 07/19/12
After Show: The Adventures of Dan Rather and Andy Cohen — 05/23/12
See All Articles
